Document Information

Date: 1977-08-18
By: Edward Schreyer
Citation: 18th Annual Premiers Conference, Notes for the Lead-Off Statement on “Unemployment and Job Creation”, Doc 850-8/015 (St. Andrews: 18-19 August 1977).
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DOCUMENT: 850-8/015
18TH ANNUAL PREMIERS CONFERENCE
Notes for the Lead-Off
Statement on “Unemployment
and Job Creation”
Honourable E. Schreyer
Premier of Manitoba
St. Andrews, N.B.
August 18-19, 1977

MR. CHAIRMAN:
TWO YEARS AGO, WHEN WE MET IN NEWFOUNDLAND, THE CANADIAN
ECONOMY WAS BEING THREATENED BY INCREASINGLY SERIOUS INFLATIONARY
PRESSURES.
ASIA RESULT OF OUR DISCUSSIONS AT THAT TIME, A FAIRLY
CLEAR CONSENSUS EMERGED THAT STRONG, SPECIAL MEASURES HAD TO BE
TAKEN QUICKLY TO DEAL WITH THE PROBLEM AND THAT, TO BE EFFECTIVE,
THESE MEASURES HAD TO BE APPLIED ONTA NATIONAL BASIS. AND,
WHILE IT WAS AGREED THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAD TO EXERCISE
LEADERSHIP IN THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION, IT WAS RECOGNIZED AND
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PROVINCES, TOO, HAD AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO
PLAY – AND AN OBLIGATION TO COOPERATE IN A NATIONAL ANTI-INFLATION
CAMPAIGN.
LESS THAN TWO MONTHS AFTER THE NEWFOUNDLAND CONFERENCE,
THE ANTI-INFLATION PROGRAM WAS INTRODUCED.
OF COURSE, THE ANTI-INFLATION PROGRAM THAT WAS ANNOUNCED
BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN OCTOBER, 1975 WAS FAR FROM PERFECT,
BUT ITS INTRODUCTION DID REPRESENT A STRONG RESPONSE T0 OUR
CONCERNS, AND IT WAS AN INITIATIVE WHICH VIRTUALLY ALL PROVINCES
SUPPORTED IN PRINCIPLE – THOUGH WITH MAJOR RESERVATIONS, MANY
OF WHICH PROVED SUBSEQUENTLY TO HAVE BEEN WELL~FOUNDED.
I WANTED TO REMIND THIS CONFERENCE OF THE SITUATION TWO
YEARS AGO, BECAUSE I THINK, IN MANY WAYS, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
IMPORTANT SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES THEN AND THOSE
WE FACE TODAY.
IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT UNEMPLOYMENT CAN BE
EVERY BIT AS SERIOUS A PROBLEM AS INFLATION. AT THE NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS IT HAS REACHED IN RECENT MONTHS, I FEEL-UNEMPLOYMENT
IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT T0 OUR ECONOMY AS INFLATION WAS TWO YEARS
AGO. THROUGH LOST PRODUCTION AND LOST INCOME, IT AFFECTS EVERY
CANADIAN IN A DIRECT WAY.

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MOST FORECASTERS ARE PREDICTING LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT
FOR NEXT YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW MEASURES. IN OTHER WORDS,
WE ARE FACING A NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF CLOSE TO 8 PERCENT,
AT LEAST, FOR ANOTHER SIXTEEN MONTHS OR MORE, AND, OF COURSE,
THE COMING FALL AND WINTER SEASON WILL PROBABLY BE THE MOST
DIFFICULT OF ALL, WITH THE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATE AT 8.1
PERCENT IN JULY, MANY FEAR THAT THERE COULD BE WELL OVER A MILLION
CANADIANS UNEMPLOYED THIS WINTER.
THIS LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT IS NEITHER DESIRABLE NOR
ACCEPTABLE. AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 4% WHILE NOT IDEAL WOULD
BE A REASONABLE TARGET FOR OUR CONSIDERATION.
IT IS QUITE CLEAR NOW THAT THE IMPACT OF THE SPRING FEDERAL
BUDGET HAS NOT BEEN AS POSITIVE AS OTTAWA OBVIOUSLY HOPED. AT
THE TIME IT WAS INTRODUCED, OUR GOVERNMENT AND OTHERS, I BELIEVE,
INDICATED THAT WE FELT TOO MUCH RELIANCE WAS BEING PLACED ON TAX
INCENTIVES TO ENCOURAGE INVESTMENT, AND NOT ENOUGH EMPHASIS WAS BEING
PLANNED FOR DIRECT PROGRAMS WITH IMMEDIATE IMPACT. SO FAR, OUR
CONCERNS HAVE BEEN BORNE OUT, AND, AS IT SAID EARLIER, THERE IS
LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. IN FACT, AS RECENTLY ASIA FEW WEEKS AGO, THE PRIME MINISTER
ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT THE FACT THAT “THE PRIVATE SECTOR
HAS NOT TAKEN UP THE SLACK WHICH WAS PROVIDED FOR IT IN THE BUDGET”.
IN DISCUSSING THE FEDERAL POSITION IT IS IMPORTANT TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT OF A FALL CANADA WORKS
PROGRAM. HOWEVER, THE AD HOC SHORT-TERM NATURE OF SUCH MEASURES
AND THE INADEQUATE ALLOCATION OF FUNDS WILL ENSURE THAT NO MAJOR
REDUCTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT IS ACHIEVED.
A BETTER ALTERNATTVE WOULD BE A REINTRODUCTTON OF THE
PARTIALLY FORGIVEABLE LOANS FOR CAPITAL WORKS PROJECTS. IN A
T974 AT THE PREMIERS’ CONFERENCE IN OTTAWA OUR COMMUNIQUE CALLED
ON THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO EXTEND THIS PROGRAM. IF THAT
RECOMMENDATION HAD BEEN FOLLOWED, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOME~
WHAT LESS SERIOUS THAT IT IS TODAY. WE PROPOSE A CAPITAL WORKS
FOREGIVEABLE LOAN FUND IN THE ORDER OF $300 T0 $450 MILLION,
DOLLARS.

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IN ADDITION THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD EXAMINE MAJOR
CAPITAL PROJECTS SUCH AS MAJOR ENERGY PROJECTS, PIPELINES AND»
PROPOSED RAIL LINE ELECTRIFICATION TO DETERMINE WHEN AND HOW
MAJOR PROJECTS SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN TO BOTH MEET OUR NEEDS AND
REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT.
IF WE DON’T BEGIN SOON TO CONSIDER THESE ISSUES FROM A
LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE, INEVITABLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
FROM “CRISIS” TO “CRISIS”, WITH NO REAL HOPE OF SUSTAINED A
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIVING STANDARDS OF OUR CITIZENS. THIS IS
THE CLEAR LESSON OF THE PAST FEW YEARS. IT IS MEANINGLESS AND
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE TO ARGUE ABOUT WHETHER INFLATION OR UNEMPLOYMENT
IS OUR “NUMBER ONE PROBLEM”. THEY ARE BOTH URGENT PROBLEMS, AND
ALL SENIOR GOVERNMENTS IN CANADA MUST START WORKING TOGETHER ON A
CONTINUING BASIS IF WE ARE TO HAVE ANY REALISTIC HOPE OF DEALING
WITH THEM EFFECTIVELY OVER THE LONG TERM.
I AM ENCOURAGED, THAT THE FEDERAL MINISTER OF FINANCE HAS
PROPOSED THAT HE AND HIS PROVINCIAL COLLEAGUES MEET EARLY IN
OCTOBER TO DISCUSS THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION. SUCH A MEETING
CANNOT HELP BUT BE USEFUL, ALTHOUGH ITS VALUE WILL BE LIMITED, IF,
BY THAT TIME, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS NOT ANNOUNCED, AT LEAST
IN GENERAL TERMS, ITS INTENTION TO PROCEED WITH NEW JOB CREATION
PLANS.
IN MANITOBA, OUR GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY MADE CLEAR OUR WA
INTENTION TO EXTEND OUR OWN SPECIAL PROGRAM OF DIRECT JOB _
CREATION INTO THE FALL. OUR PROGRAM BECAME OPERATIONAL IN EARLY
SUMMER, AND IT HAS ALREADY PROVED TO BE HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL.
SEVERAL PROVINCES AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAVE ASKED FOR
DETAILED BRIEFINGS ON THE VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF THE PROGRAM,
AND I WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLEASED TO HAVE OUR OFFICIALS PROVIDE
THE SAME KIND OF INFORMATION TO ANY OTHER PROVINCES WHICH MAY
WISH TO HAVE IT.
UNFORTUNATELY, AS ALL PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS KNOW ONLY
TOO WELL, THERE ARE LIMITS ON HOW EFFECTIVE PROVINCIAL PROGRAMS
CAN BE IN COUNTERACTING A MAJOR NATIONAL ECONOMIC PROBLEM. AGAIN,
WE MUST HAVE A NATIONAL RESPONSE – A NATIONAL EFFORT, UNDER FEDERAL LEADERSHIP -IF WE ARE TO DEAL EFFECTIVELY WITH
UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE COMING MONTHS.